Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 7.849745 9.271896 10.838417 12.686531 14.801497 17.140367 19.916498
2025-02-02 5.969862 7.866882 10.153092 13.088377 16.731691 21.078141 26.625865
2025-02-09 4.854444 7.008407 9.803414 13.644136 18.724825 25.149252 33.809972
2025-02-16 3.890256 6.096735 9.154000 13.610831 19.835947 28.101195 39.758023
2025-02-23 3.075029 5.205520 8.342894 13.169800 20.248741 30.061753 44.457034
2025-03-02 2.436711 4.440212 7.565167 12.619702 20.370448 31.540796 48.512408
2025-03-09 2.059845 4.010186 7.211644 12.621801 21.243431 34.088006 54.190221
2025-03-16 1.766416 3.661893 6.926320 12.671611 22.155918 36.717038 60.120482
2025-03-23 1.513867 3.336900 6.625741 12.642891 22.912109 39.127650 65.841340
2025-03-30 1.239037 2.915369 6.091105 12.140473 22.824109 40.183902 69.504848
2025-04-06 1.074341 2.680428 5.858213 12.129658 23.539619 42.542039 75.328616
2025-04-13 0.927879 2.454505 5.607672 12.049713 24.112137 44.682027 80.901756
2025-04-20 0.871783 2.423130 5.744872 12.729080 26.119821 49.400170 91.074337
2025-04-27 0.805427 2.355754 5.799675 13.254265 27.890291 53.830272 101.031339
2025-05-04 0.751791 2.308671 5.889861 13.856064 29.846562 58.697014 111.991453
2025-05-11 0.657910 2.139370 5.688220 13.834850 30.606666 61.486128 119.509074
2025-05-18 0.550155 1.907525 5.308885 13.391355 30.495558 62.683667 124.282595
2025-05-25 0.453043 1.680166 4.902154 12.834388 30.096628 63.306586 128.037229
2025-06-01 0.399190 1.566969 4.755060 12.836882 30.832048 66.078726 135.806070
2025-06-08 0.354400 1.470705 4.635678 12.887540 31.666712 69.079454 144.134544
2025-06-15 0.311905 1.370646 4.490363 12.858433 32.323349 71.764789 151.995830
2025-06-22 0.257725 1.213841 4.164178 12.348597 31.882183 72.253518 155.711691
2025-06-29 0.227528 1.135167 4.044129 12.337625 32.546597 74.981805 163.843701